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US Housing: Prices Driven Up By Limited Construction & Strong Demand
Single family construction presents a puzzle: with the economy in the seventh year of expansion, why has home construction remained[…]
Oil Outlook for the Remainder of 2016
I believe oil prices will likely remain under pressure through the end of the year. There has been exceptional growth[…]
Shale: Producers Get Religion, But Uncertainty Remains
The answer to a fundamental question is becoming clearer: US oil production is likely going to be down dramatically in[…]
China: Rising Risks Posed by Shadow Banking
Non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs), which typically operate with less regulatory oversight compared to banks, have existed in China for decades.
BB-Rated Bank Loans Can Make It Better: Reducing Volatility, Drawdown Risk
Our bank loan team has long believed that BB-rated bank loans can be very attractive to asset allocators who wish[…]
The US Auto Industry: Have Sales Peaked?
After six consecutive years of growth, it looks like sales in the US auto industry may have peaked.
Equity Earnings: Where Will We Run in 2017?
The burning question for equity investors is: what will happen to earnings in 2017?
Boring Ol’ TIPS – Not So Boring Now
TIPS seem to be en vogue. Why the interest in this relatively unexciting, high-quality asset class?
Relationships Are Complicated: Crude Oil and US Equities
Over the last 30 years, the correlation between crude and US equities has been essentially zero. But in the first[…]
Green Shoots in China Promising, but Temporary
The ‘green shoots’ we see in the Chinese economy are not likely to persist and I expect softness to resume[…]
What Happens to High Yield, Happens to Bank Loans—Only Less
One of the phrases our bank loan team loves to use is “whatever happens in the high yield market, happens[…]
Fallen Angels: For Investment Grade Investors, Patience is a Virtue
Since January, Moody’s has stripped 33 US corporations of their investment grade status — the highest yearly number since the[…]
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